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US Green Card Approvals Drop Sharply, With Indians Among the Hardest Hit: What the Data Shows
New data drawn from U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) figures show a sharp decline in green card approvals over the past year. Moreover, the Indian applicants are absorbing a disproportionate share of the slowdown. The numbers, compiled and analyzed by immigration research groups including Boundless Immigration and the Cato Institute, paint a picture of an approval system that has tightened considerably since the current administration took office. This is in clear disparity with the overall demand for green cards from Indian nationals, which, on the other hand, continued to climb.
As always, our EB-1A consultants have analyzed this news in great detail and addressed why the decline in approval hides many nuances that have not been mentioned before.
Family-based approvals cut nearly in half
Among the starkest findings is the trajectory of family-sponsored green card approvals nationwide. According to a Cato Institute analysis reported by Newsweek, family-sponsored approvals stood at 30,699 in January 2025, when President Trump returned to office. They then climbed to 52,181 in July 2025, shortly after Joseph Edlow was confirmed as USCIS director, only to plunge to 23,847 by January 2026. That represents a decline of more than 54 percent from the July 2025 peak in just six months, and a drop below even the January 2025 starting point.
The analysis found that the declines were not evenly distributed across categories. Employment-based immigration held comparatively steady, while humanitarian pathways (like refugee admissions, asylee cases, and parole-based applications) saw the steepest cuts of all. Cuban adjustment cases in particular saw a near shutdown in approvals, even as Immigration and Customs Enforcement arrests of Cuban parolees rose 463 percent over the same period, according to the same analysis.
Indians and the EB-1A Squeeze
Indian applicants specifically have witnessed the greatest squeeze in the EB-1A green card. Because it doesn't require sponsorship, EB-1A has increasingly become a preferred route for Indian tech professionals seeking to sidestep the notoriously backlogged EB-2 and EB-3 categories.
Data compiled by Boundless Immigration from USCIS figures shows just how much that route has narrowed. In FY2025, Indian applicants filed 14,250 EB-1A petitions, of which 6,993 were approved, and 1,474 were denied. The trend shows an approval rate of above 65 percent when measured against completed adjudications. But in just the first two quarters of FY2026, Indian applicants filed 7,316 petitions, with only 2,571 approved against 1,131 denials, a marked drop in the approval share compared to the prior year.
The trend is not isolated to Indian applicants alone. Separate FY2026 data shows the overall EB-1A approval rate across all nationalities fell to roughly 41.7 percent in the second quarter of the fiscal year, down sharply from about 66.9 percent for FY2025 as a whole. Immigration experts have described Indian applicants as being among the hardest hit by this broader tightening in adjudication standards, given how heavily the Indian applicant pool has come to rely on EB-1A as an alternative pathway.
Interestingly, an EB-1A approval does not, by itself, guarantee an Indian applicant an imminent green card. India remains subject to backlogs even within the broader EB-1 category. In other words, approved petitioners may still need to wait for their priority date to become current before they can actually receive permanent residency.
A system under encumbering pressure
The tightening in approval rates has coincided with a broader slowdown across nearly every part of USCIS's processing pipeline. According to the American Immigration Council, pending I-140 petitions more than quadrupled over the past decade: it rose from 43,509 in FY2016's first quarter to 180,439 by the fourth quarter of FY2025, the highest level in ten years. Since the third quarter of FY2023, USCIS has processed fewer petitions than it received in nearly every quarter through the end of FY2025.
The visa-availability question also further compounds the problem. The number of foreign nationals with an approved I-140 who are still waiting for an actual visa number to become available grew 15.3 percent, from 557,041 in the second quarter of FY2023 to 642,226 by the fourth quarter of FY2025. Indian-born beneficiaries accounted for 73.4 percent of all petitions awaiting visas in the EB-2 category alone during that final quarter. All the data underscore how concentrated the backlog has become among Indian applicants specifically.
Work-authorization processing has also deteriorated. The number of pending Form I-765 applications for adjustment-of-status applicants more than doubled during FY2025. The American Immigration Council found that clearance times for that backlog stretched from 2.7 months to 10.2 months over the same period.
Separately, USCIS has expanded pauses on green card processing tied to nationals from countries designated as security concerns. By December 2025, the agency had paused processing for 19 countries; that list expanded to 40 countries by January 2026, according to the Newsweek report. The pause has added further delay and uncertainty even for applicants and lawful permanent residents whose cases are not directly targeted by the pause.
What is driving the slowdown
Immigration analysts point to several overlapping factors behind the broader decline. USCIS has coordinated more closely with ICE to conduct enforcement actions at government offices. Following the shooting of two National Guard members in Washington, D.C., in late 2025, the administration announced expanded vetting measures and ordered a review of green card cases involving nationals from "countries of concern," which directed USCIS to reexamine certain prior approvals. All these measures have contributed to further slowdown and decline of the approval rate.
Overall USCIS case completions have also fallen sharply. According to the Niskanen Center's tracking of agency data, USCIS completed just 1.8 million cases in the first quarter of FY2026. It is a 41 percent decrease compared to the same quarter a year earlier, and a 28 percent decrease from the immediately preceding quarter. By the end of that quarter, the agency's net backlog of cases within its control totaled 6.3 million, up from less than 4.3 million at the same point in FY2025.
What this means for the green card applicants
If you are an Indian applicant who is weighing their green card strategy, the data suggests a more cautious approach may be needed. EB-1A remains a genuine option, but the sharply lower approval rate in FY2026 means petitions likely need to be stronger and better-documented than they might have needed to be a year ago to clear the same bar.
Many checklist EB-1A profile-building companies often promise the applicants of profile enhancement and EB-1A success. This practice often leads to weak and poorly assembled profiles that are more likely to get denied at the final merit determination stage. The rise of this kind of profile builders is yet another indirect reason behind the downfall of the approval rate.
Unlike this trend of profile building, our EB1a consultants endorse completely ethical and organic profile building that begins with a deep understanding of the applicant's profile. We, then, slowly aim to fill in all the gaps in the candidate's profile, by putting them in touch with authentic media coverage, tier-1 publications and much more.
Our EB-1A attorney friends are increasingly advising applicants to build a more thoroughly evidenced petition from the outset instead of relying on approval trends from FY2025 as a guide to what FY2026 adjudicators expect.
Get in touch with GCEB1 for a personalized EB-1A profile evaluation. We wish you a safe and stress-free immigration journey ahead.
Frequently asked questions
1. How much have overall green card approvals dropped?
Family-sponsored green card approvals fell from a peak of 52,181 in July 2025 to 23,847 in January 2026, which is a drop of more than 54 percent in six months, according to a Cato Institute analysis. Employment-based categories like EB-1A saw the overall approval rate fall from about 66.9 percent in FY2025 to roughly 41.7 percent in the second quarter of FY2026.
2. Why are Indian applicants especially affected?
Indian applicants make up the largest share of employment-based green card demand and have increasingly relied on the EB-1A "extraordinary ability" category as an alternative to the heavily backlogged EB-2 and EB-3 categories. As EB-1A approval rates have fallen sharply industry-wide, Indian applicants, who filed thousands of these petitions in FY2025 and FY2026, have felt the tightening disproportionately.
3. What is the EB-1A category, and why is it popular with Indian tech professionals?
EB-1A is a green card pathway for individuals with extraordinary ability in fields like science, technology, business, education, and the arts. Unlike most employment-based routes, it allows self-petitioning without an employer sponsor, making it attractive to Indian professionals seeking to avoid the multi-decade backlogs common in EB-2 and EB-3 for India-born applicants.
4. Does getting an EB-1A petition approved mean an immediate green card?
No. India remains subject to backlogs within the broader EB-1 category. An approved petition establishes eligibility, but the applicant may still need to wait for their priority date to become current before receiving an actual green card.
5. What categories have been hit hardest overall?
Humanitarian pathways, including refugee admissions, asylee cases, and parole-based applications, saw the steepest declines. Cuban adjustment cases saw a near shutdown in approvals. Employment-based immigration has been comparatively more stable than humanitarian categories, though EB-1A approval rates specifically have fallen sharply.
6. Why has USCIS processing slowed down so significantly?
Several factors are cited, including closer coordination between USCIS and ICE on enforcement actions, expanded vetting measures and case reviews following a late-2025 security incident involving National Guard members, and broader operational strain reflected in falling case-completion numbers and a growing backlog.
7. What is the "countries of concern" pause, and does it affect Indian applicants?
USCIS has paused green card processing for nationals of certain countries designated as security concerns, expanding from 19 countries in December 2025 to 40 by January 2026. Indian nationals are not the direct target of this pause, but the broader processing slowdown it has contributed to affects the overall pipeline that Indian applicants also move through.
8. Has the I-140 backlog grown as well?
Yes. Pending I-140 petitions more than quadrupled over the past decade, reaching 180,439 by the end of FY2025, the highest level in ten years. Indian-born beneficiaries accounted for 73.4 percent of EB-2 petitions awaiting visa availability in the final quarter of FY2025.
9. What should Indian applicants do differently given this data?
Immigration attorneys are generally advising more thoroughly documented EB-1A petitions given the sharply lower approval rate, and encouraging applicants to plan around realistic visa-availability timelines rather than treating an approved petition as the end of the process, since the underlying per-country backlog for India remains largely unchanged.
Sources & further readings
- Economic Times. "Indian Techies Hit Hardest as US Green Card Approvals Drop 35%." The Economic Times, August 2026. economictimes.com.
- Economic Times. "US Immigration Delays Worsen and Denial Rates Climb as USCIS Backlog Surges to 11.3 Million." The Economic Times, August 2026. economictimes.com.
- Times of India. "Trump Admin Crackdown: Indian Techies See Biggest Hit as US Green Card Approvals Plunge Sharply." Times of India, August 17, 2026. timesofindia.indiatimes.com.
- Times of India. "US Green Card Approvals Drop 35%, Indians Hit Hardest; What US Immigration Authority Data Says." Times of India, August 18, 2026. timesofindia.indiatimes.com.
- Times of India. "US Green Card Applicants to Face Broader Public Charge Scrutiny from September 18." Times of India, August 2026. timesofindia.indiatimes.com.
- U.S. Department of State, Bureau of Consular Affairs. "Visa Bulletin for August 2026." August 2026. travel.state.gov.
- U.S. Department of State, Bureau of Consular Affairs. "The Visa Bulletin." Accessed August 21, 2026. travel.state.gov.
