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Several Research Data Indicates Reducing Immigration Can Harm America’s Own Workers
According to Forbes and several other outlets, new researches are indicating a damaging trend to the U.S. economy. Within the last few weeks, studies have hinted that the United States is more likely to prosper by welcoming more immigrants instead of barring or prohibiting them. Contrary to what one may assume, the U.S.-born native workers are not benefiting from stricter immigration policies, the research suggests.
This research has, moreover, been conducted by the National Foundation for American Policy Analysis. Here, our EB-1A consultants have closely analysed and discussed this important research data in detail.
What do the numbers say?: The NFAP Analysis
According to the NFAP analysis, there has been a sharp increase in the unemployment rate for the U.S.-born workers. It has steeply increased from 4.3% in January 2025 to 4.7% in January 2026. Parallely, the number of foreign-born workers has depleted by 122,000. The analysis by the NFAP concludes in the following terms:
“This decline, though smaller than reported in earlier months, represents a reduction of more than 1.4 million foreign-born workers compared to the labor force growth expected in government estimates.”
The numbers are a far cry from the expected numbers by the Congressional Budget Office and the Social Security Administration. They jointly assumed approximately 1.3 million more foreign-born workers during this period.
Moreover, the numbers also testified against the expectations of the Trump administration officials who speculated that the U.S.-born workers would prosper through immigration restrictions. The fact is: they did not fill in the empty places left by the foreign-born workers.
The NFAP report has also hinted at a subsequent weakening of labour force growth. The labour force growth is undoubtedly a vital nerve in the overall U.S. economy. A major portion of economic growth depends on the proportional growth of the labour force. The diminution and potential loss of the labour force can, in turn, impact the living standards of average Americans. To put it in the words of NFAP’s own findings:
“The Trump administration’s policies on illegal and legal immigration would reduce the projected number of workers in the United States by 6.8 million by 2028 and by 15.7 million by 2035 and lower the annual rate of economic growth by almost one-third, harming U.S. living standards.”
Other studies to find correlations between immigration & economy
Multiple other economic studies alsofound that reducing immigration dampens employment growth and produces long-term economic harm.
Research by Daniel Wilson (Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco) and Xiaoqing Zhou (Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas) shows that declines in unauthorized immigrant workers have a near one-for-one negative effect on employment growth. Construction and manufacturing have been hit especially hard. Their findings suggest that there is no fixed number of jobs. Immigrants contribute to job creation through the trio of labor participation, entrepreneurship, and consumer demand. When firms cannot find enough workers, they invest less and expand less. This, in turn, can reduce the overall economic dynamism.
A National Bureau of Economic Research study by Javier Cravino, Andrei Levchenko, Francesc Ortega, and Nitya Pandalai-Nayar also examined the economic impact of large-scale deportations. They found out: removing 50% of unauthorized immigrants would produce only a tiny short-term wage gain for U.S.-born workers (0.15%), followed by long-run wage declines (0.33% nationally):
“In the long run, however, native (U.S.-born) real wages fall in every state, and by 0.33% nationally, as capital gets decumulated [drawn down] in response to a lower population,” according to the National Bureau of Economic Research study. “Consumer prices in the sectors intensive in unauthorized workers—such as Farming—rise by about 1% relative to the price of the average consumption basket, while most other sectors experience negligible relative price changes.”
These studies and reports show that the link between immigration and economic growth is anything but intuitive. Immigration restrictions alone are far from ensuring the economic prosperity of the U.S.-born workers. Instead, it can cause several boomerang effects that can jeopardize a nation’s economic health.
At GCEB1, we believe every immigration aspirants have a right to authentic, data-backed insights. Our EB-1A experts are continuously working towards this goal. For more personalized suggestions regarding U.S. immigration, directly get in touch with us. We wish you a smooth and stress-free immigration journey.
Sources & Further Readings
- “Unauthorized Immigration Effects on Local Labor Markets” Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Economic Letter
- “The Economic Impact of Mass Deportations" National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper 34790
- “Is Immigration Good for Health? The Effect of Immigration on Older Adult Mortality in the United States" National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper 34791
- Anderson, Stuart. 2026.“New Research Finds Reducing Immigration Does Not Help U.S. Workers."Forbes, February 22, 2026.
