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A Backlog That Grows on Its Own: Inside USCIS's Record 12.1 Million Pending Cases
U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services is receiving dramatically fewer applications than it used to. However, its backlog is bigger than it has ever been. According to the American Immigration Council's latest analysis, published September 11, 2026, pending cases at USCIS reached 12.1 million in the second quarter of fiscal year 2026 which is the highest figure recorded since the Council's dataset begins in FY2016. As the Council put it plainly, this is "a trend that reflects a series of policy and process changes by the Trump administration intended on restricting immigration into the United States."
As always, our EB-1A experts have zoomed into this important piece of analysis published by the American Immigration Council. We have analyzed and commented in detail what the numbers actually mean and what applicants are to expect in the future. Let's dive in.
What do the numbers indicate regarding the USCIS backlog?
In ordinary circumstances, a shrinking backlog would follow from fewer people filing paperwork. That is not what is happening in this case. The Council's Immigration Filing Trends Dashboard shows USCIS received 45.0% fewer forms in FY2026 Q2 than it did in the same quarter the year before. Under normal conditions, that alone should have relieved pressure on the system. Instead, the agency's own output fell even faster: completions dropped by 44.5% over the same period, hitting just 1.5 million. This has been the eighth consecutive quarter of declining completions, and less than half of the 3.3 million applications and petitions USCIS completed in FY2024 Q2.
The policy research group Niskanen Center, analyzing the same underlying data, reached a similarly stark conclusion: USCIS "completed just 1.5 million cases in Q2, a 44 percent decrease compared to the year prior and 17 percent lower than the quarter prior." Niskanen also isolated what it calls the "net backlog" which are cases genuinely within the government's own control to resolve, as opposed to those awaiting external steps like background checks. Backlogs in cases of this category grew by 42% year-over-year, surpassing 7 million cases in FY2026 Q2 alone.
How much waiting is required now?
For people with cases in the system, the most tangible consequence is time. The Council calculated that the estimated time needed to clear the current backlog jumped from 12.5 months in FY2025 Q2 to 24.1 months in FY2026 Q2 which is nearly double, year over year. Startlingly, much of that increase happened recently: the same measure stood at 18.6 months just one quarter earlier, in FY2026 Q1. In other words, wait times rose nearly 30% in three months alone.
That acceleration echoes an earlier Council analysis covering FY2026 Q1, which found the backlog clearance time for Form I-485 adjustment-of-status applications filed by asylees rose more than eightfold in a single year. The same report noted the overall denial rate climbed from 8.9% to 12.2%.
Some categories are far worse than others
Buried inside the aggregate numbers, there are individual form categories experiencing extreme swings. According to the Council's Q2 analysis, pending Form I-765 applications (work permits filed by people with pending green card applications) rose 206%, from 191,000 to 585,000 cases, despite USCIS receiving fewer new I-765 filings over the same period.
Likewise, pending I-485 adjustment-of-status applications filed by refugees climbed 190% year-over-year. And pending I-129 petitions for nonimmigrant workers (the category covering H-1B, L-1, and O-1 visas) rose 90%, from 63,000 to 120,000 cases, even though approval rates for that category held essentially steady (edging up from 89.2% to 89.6%).
Approval rates fell sharply elsewhere, however. The Council's data shows:
- I-485 adjustment-of-status approvals for Cuban nationals dropped 44.6 percentage points, from 97.2% to 52.6%;
- approvals for refugee adjustment of status fell 31.3 points, from 97.4% to 66.1%; and
- approvals for I-140 petitions under the EB-1 "extraordinary ability" category dropped 31.0 points, from 72.7% to 41.7%.
A separate Council analysis of earlier 2025 data found the EB-1A denial rate specifically had already climbed from 25.3% to 52.5% year-over-year, alongside a substantial rise in National Interest Waiver denials.
One category where the approval rate is actually improving
Amid the broader deterioration, the Council flagged a genuine improvement: approvals for employment-based I-485 adjustment-of-status applications nearly doubled quarter-over-quarter. It rose from 21,924 in FY2026 Q1 to 41,979 in FY2026 Q2.
However, unused employment-based visa numbers generally cannot roll over past their fiscal year. In other words, any shortfall in processing speed could permanently forfeit visa numbers that would otherwise have gone to approved applicants.
What exactly is driving the slowdown?
Analysts examining the same trend point to capacity, not caseload, as the core problem. Federal workforce data compiled by FederalHiringData notes that as of the FY2026 Q2 reporting period, USCIS's formal backlog stood at roughly 7.03 million cases against a broader pending inventory of 12.13 million. They pointed at declining staffing levels cited as a contributing structural factor.
As one legal analysis of the trend summarized it succinctly: "A backlog that grows while filings fall is not a demand problem. It is a throughput problem". As long as the agency completes fewer cases than it receives, a pattern that has now persisted for eleven consecutive quarters, the backlog has no mathematical path to shrinking on its own.
As the Council concluded in its latest release, "unless processing capacity improves, immigrants, employers, and families alike will face growing uncertainty and delays in the years ahead". This warning, on the current numbers, is already proving accurate.
At GCEB1, our EB-1A consultants are staying eagle eyed on all the immigration updates from the land of the United States. Stay tuned to us to read through the latest analysis, insights and more. We wish you a safe and stress free immigration journey ahead.
Frequently Asked Questions
1. How large is the USCIS backlog as of the latest data?
Pending cases reached 12.1 million in FY2026 Q2, a 7.2% increase over the previous year and the highest figure recorded in the American Immigration Council's dataset dating back to FY2016.
2. If USCIS is receiving fewer applications, why is the backlog still growing?
Because completions fell even faster than filings, filings dropped 45.0% year-over-year while completions dropped 44.5%, meaning the agency is resolving proportionally fewer cases than it's receiving, which mathematically grows the backlog regardless of overall volume.
3. How long does it currently take to clear the backlog?
The estimated backlog clearance time was 24.1 months in FY2026 Q2, up from 12.5 months a year earlier and 18.6 months just one quarter earlier.
4. Which specific forms saw the largest backlog increases?
Form I-765 (work permits for pending adjustment-of-status applicants) rose 206%; Form I-485 for refugee adjustment of status rose 190%; and Form I-129 nonimmigrant worker petitions (including H-1B, L-1, and O-1) rose 90%.
5. Are approval rates changing across immigration categories?
Yes, significantly in some categories. Approval rates for Cuban national adjustment of status dropped 44.6 percentage points, refugee adjustment of status dropped 31.3 points, and EB-1 extraordinary ability petitions dropped 31.0 points, all between FY2025 Q2 and FY2026 Q2.
6. Is there any positive development in the data?
Yes. Approvals for employment-based I-485 adjustment-of-status applications nearly doubled quarter-over-quarter, from about 21,924 to 41,979 between FY2026 Q1 and Q2.
7. What is the concern about employment-based visas for FY2026?
There is uncertainty whether USCIS and the State Department can process and issue all 186,317 available employment-based visas before the fiscal year ends September 30, since unused numbers generally cannot roll over to the next fiscal year.
8. How many consecutive quarters has USCIS completed fewer cases than it received?
According to related Council analysis, this marks the eleventh consecutive quarter in which completions have failed to keep pace with receipts, a pattern known as a declining efficiency ratio.
9. What does the American Immigration Council attribute this trend to?
The Council states the pattern "reflects a series of policy and process changes by the Trump administration intended on restricting immigration into the United States," while analysts examining staffing data point to reduced processing capacity as a contributing structural factor.
Sources & further readings
- American Immigration Council. "New Dashboard Reveals Insights Into USCIS Backlogs and Processing Trends." American Immigration Council, April 30, 2026. Read article
- American Immigration Council. "USCIS Filing Trends: New Data Shows Immigration Processing Falling Further Behind." American Immigration Council, August 2026. Read article
- American Immigration Council. "USCIS Backlog Grows Even as Agency Gets Fewer Filings." American Immigration Council, September 11, 2026. Read article
- American Immigration Council. "USCIS Immigration Filing Trends Dashboard." Accessed September 12, 2026. View dashboard
- Federal Hiring Data. "USCIS Had 12.1 Million Cases Pending. Its Formal Backlog Was 7 Million." Federal Hiring Data, August 23, 2026. Read article
- Jeelani Law. "USCIS Processing Times Are Growing Longer as Backlogs Reach Record Highs." Jeelani Law, 2026. Read article
- Niskanen Center. "Legal Immigration in Numbers: August 2026 Status Update." Niskanen Center, August 2026. Read article
- SW Law Group, P.C. "USCIS Backlogs Hit a Record 11.3 Million Cases as Denial Rates Climb." SW Law Group, August 7, 2026. Read article
- U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services. "Fiscal Year 2023 Employment-Based Adjustment of Status FAQs." Accessed September 12, 2026. Read FAQ
