NFAP Releases Report on the Economic Impact of Trump’s Immigration Policies
Last year, the National Foundation for American Policy (NFAP) published a major policy brief assessing the economic effects of the Trump administration’s immigration agenda. It offers the first comprehensive analysis of both legal and illegal immigration changes on the U.S. economy. The report projects dramatic shifts in the labor market, gross domestic product (GDP) growth, and fiscal outcomes through 2035. These findings have far-reaching implications for policymakers, employers, workers, and investors.
In what follows, our EB-1A experts have analysed this report in great detail and highlighted the core points of this review.
Executive summary: policies slow growth and shrink the workforce
The NFAP report shows a stark conclusion: Trump’s immigration policies would significantly reduce the size of the U.S. workforce and slow long-term economic growth. According to the policy, the ongoing immigration reforms can harm living standards and increase federal debt. According to the analysis, the combined effect of restrictions on both illegal and legal immigration will:
- Decrease the projected U.S. labor force by 6.8 million workers by 2028 and 15.7 million by 2035.
- Lower the annual economic growth rate by nearly one-third over the 2025-2035 period.
- Reduce cumulative economic output (GDP) by $1.9 trillion from 2025 to 2028 and $12.1 trillion from 2025 to 2035.
- The federal public debt is substantially due to slower economic expansion and lower tax revenues.
These projected impacts stem from modeling that combines NFAP calculations with publicly available tools from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) and conservative assumptions about population growth and labor force participation.
Labor force fallout: millions fewer workers
The NFAP report emphasizes that a shrinking labor force is the primary driver of the economic slowdown. By 2028, immigration restrictions are estimated to reduce the number of workers by 6.8 million, and by 15.7 million by 2035.
Policymakers have pursued a range of measures that contribute to this reduction. On the legal immigration side, the analysis cites:
- Suspensions and cuts in refugee admissions.
- A travel ban was enacted in 2025.
- Ending work authorizations for international students (including Optional Practical Training and STEM-OPT).
- Proposed or anticipated rules, such as stricter public charge tests.
Of the 6.8 million fewer workers by 2028, about 2.8 million come from these legal immigration changes; the remaining 4 million are linked to policies targeting illegal immigration. By 2035, legal immigration changes account for 4.7 million of the 15.7 million total labor loss.
The implications of the review are the following: fewer workers mean reduced productivity and tighter labor markets. It could also eventually constrain growth across industries, from technology to agriculture, hospitality, healthcare, and logistics.
Slower growth: GDP projections and the larger picture
The NFAP report draws on the CBO’s baseline projections to estimate the effect of these workforce changes on economic growth. The findings indicate a material slowdown:
Overall, the average annual GDP growth rate would fall from about 1.8% to 1.3%, which accounts for roughly a one-third drop when compared with projections assuming no policy changes.
Economists often use GDP growth as a proxy for national prosperity. A sustained 0.5 percentage point gap in growth can cumulatively lower income levels. The report suggests that it can also constrain investment and reduce overall productivity.
Trillions in lost output: long-term economic consequences
Across the 2025-2035 decade, the labor force contraction and slower growth translate into cumulative losses of:
- $1.9 trillion in GDP from 2025 to 2028.
- $12.1 trillion in GDP from 2025 to 2035.
On a per-person basis, NFAP estimates losses of approximately $5,612 per person through 2028 and $34,369 per person through 2035. In other words, the report underscores how broad the impact could be across the population.
These figures do not include potential secondary effects such as reduced innovation or productivity losses linked to restricted access to high-skilled foreign workers: an omission NFAP notes makes its projections conservative.
Fiscal stress: rising federal debt and deficits
A slower economy also affects federal finances. NFAP projects that restrictive immigration policies would:
- Raise federal debt held by the public by $252 billion by 2028 (in 2025 dollars).
- Increase debt by around $1.74 trillion by 2035 compared with CBO projections.
Debt-to-GDP ratios, which are already high by historical standards, would increase further. This is an outcome that may influence monetary policy, interest costs, and fiscal planning.
Policy implications: labor, innovation, and national competitiveness
The NFAP brief underscores that immigration affects not only population figures but also innovation and productivity. Citing earlier research, the report notes that foreign STEM workers contributed significantly to productivity growth between 1990 and 2010. In other words, the report suggests that limiting access to skilled immigrants could slow technological progress and a competitive edge.
An economic crossroads?
As the Trump administration continues to implement restrictive immigration measures, the NFAP’s analysis paints a detailed picture of the potential economic consequences. Though the administration frames these policies as strengthening opportunities for native-born workers, economic data and projections suggest that the broader economy may slow rather than accelerate growth. The NFAP report provides important evidence that increasing immigration restrictions can reshape the entire economic trajectory of a nation, for better or worse.
Our EB-1A consultants are taking notes of all the critical turns in the wider immigration landscape. For more updates and analytics, stay tuned to our blog sections. For personalized suggestions and consultation for merit-based visas, get in touch with our experts. We wish you a safe and stress-free immigration journey.
Sources & Further Readings
- National Foundation for American Policy. “The Economic Impact of the Trump Administration’s Immigration Policies. NFAP Policy Brief 2025-1” Arlington, VA: National Foundation for American Policy, October 2025. PDF file.
- Anderson, Stuart.“The Outlook on H-1B Visas and Immigration in 2026.” Forbes, January 6, 2026.
